Adjustments after speculative attacks in Latin America and Asia :a tale of two regions?

• 作者: Perry, Guillermo,
• 其他作者: Lederman, Daniel,
• 出版: Washington, D.C. : Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, the World Bank 1999.
• 稽核項: 1 online resource (vii, 42 pages) :illustrations.
• 叢書名: World Bank Latin American and Caribbean studies. Viewpoints
• 標題: POLITICAL SCIENCE , Since 1945 , Récessions , Asie , Recessions. , Asia , Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Asia. , Amérique latine Conditions économiques -- 1982- , Economic conditions , Recessions Asia. , Latin America Economic conditions -- 1982- , BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Development -- General. , Ajustement structurel (Économie) , Government & Business. , BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Government & Business. , Conditions économiques , BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Structural Adjustment. , Recessions , Asie Conditions économiques -- 1945- , Asia. , Ajustement structurel (Économie) Amérique latine. , Aanpassing. , Latin America , BUSINESS & ECONOMICS , Ajustement structurel (Économie) Asie. , Structural adjustment (Economic policy) , Amérique latine , DevelopmentGeneral. , DevelopmentBusiness Development. , Public PolicyEconomic Policy. , Economische politiek. , Structural adjustment (Economic policy) Latin America. , Latin America. , Electronic books. , Recessions Latin America. , Récessions Amérique latine. , BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Development -- Economic Development. , DevelopmentEconomic Development. , Asia Economic conditions -- 1945- , BUSINESS & ECONOMICS Development -- Business Development. , Récessions Asie. , POLITICAL SCIENCE Public Policy -- Economic Policy. , Economic history. , Economische situatie. , Structural Adjustment.
• ISBN: 0821345419 , 9780821345412
• ISBN: 0821345419
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• 附註: Includes bibliographical references (pages 38-39). I. Introduction -- II. Channels of Transmission of a Speculative Attack onto the Real Economy -- III. The Aftermath of the Latin American and Asian Crises: The Crises were Deeper and the Recoveries Slower in Asia -- IV. Why were the Crises Deeper and the Recoveries Slower in Asia? Was it because the speculative pressures or the external adjustments were stronger? Was it because monetary and fiscal policy responses were stronger? Was it because initial condit̤ions amplified the impact of speculative pressures and policy responses? Did low export response play a role? Why did it happen? -- V. Conclusions and Policy Implications -- App. A. Speculative Attacks and Macro-Policy Dilemmas: An Illustration Using a Textbook Keynesian Model with Exchange-Rate Expectations -- App. B.A Suggestive Rank-Correlation Analysis.
• 摘要: The paper analyzes the adjustment process in the aftermath of speculative attacks against the currencies of six countries - Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. Even though the Mexican and Argentine crises of 1995, and the Brazilian adjustment after October 1997, were certainly costly, the Asian crises of 1997 were deeper and the recovery of the economy was slower. The paper relies on rank-correlation analysis, and economic indexing and growth decomposition techniques to evaluated the explanatory power of several hypotheses of why the recessions in Asia were more severe. The paper concludes that the large size of short-term external debt relative to GDP, the higher incidence of leverage and currency mismatches, the higher rates of investment, plus the regional character of the Asian crises and the high export similarity across the Asian economies contributed to the deeper economic downturn. However with rising regional trade and financial development, the aftermath of future speculative attacks in Latin America may look more like the recent East Asian tales of adjustment. The paper draws policy implications for reducing the costs of the macroeconomic adjustment after currency crises.
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