附註:Includes bibliographical references and index.
Book Cover; Title; Contents; List of figures; List of tables; List of equations; List of models; Acknowledgements; Who knows what tomorrow brings? Brief introductions to the sociology of scientific knowledge and to economic forecasting; Cherished beliefs and t-statistics: how economic models are estimated; Extrapolations and expertise: how economic forecasts are made; Soothsaying or science? Choosing between economic models; Different models: economic forecasts in February 1993; Different futures: controversies and disputes in July 1993
Difficult choices: policy recommendations in October 1993Economic models, economic policy and science studies; Appendix A: equations used in the econometric model; Notes; Bibliography; Interviews; Index
摘要:Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists.
