附註:Includes bibliographical references and index.
Cover -- Table of Contents -- Preface -- Dedication -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Role Playing -- Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions -- 3. Intentions -- Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data -- 4. Expert Opinions -- Improving Judgment in Forecasting -- Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts -- Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation -- Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique -- 5 . Conjoint Analysis -- Forecasting with Conjoint Analysis -- 6. Judgmental Bootstrapping -- Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting -- 7. Analogies -- Forecasting Analogous Time Series -- 8. Extrapolation -- Extrapolation of Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data -- Neural Networks For Time-Series Forecasting -- 9. Rule-Based Forecasting -- Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation -- 10. Expert Systems -- Expert Systems for Forecasting -- 11. Econometric Methods -- Econometric Forecasting -- 12. Selecting Methods -- Selecting Forecasting Methods -- 13. Integrating, Adjusting, and Combining -- Judgmental Time-Series Forecasting Using Domain Knowledge -- Judgmental Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts -- Combining Forecasts -- 14. Evaluating Methods -- Evaluating Forecasting Methods -- 15. Assessing Uncertainly -- Prediction Intervals for Time-Series Forecasting -- Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting -- 16. Gaining Acceptance -- Scenarios and Acceptance of Forecasts -- 17. Monitoring Forecasts -- Learning from Experience: Coping with Hindsight Bias and Ambiguity -- 18. Applications of Principles -- Population Forecasting -- Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations: Implications for Time-Series Extrapolation -- Econometric Models for Forecasting Market Share -- Forecasting Trial Sales of New Consumer Packaged Goods -- 19. Diffusion of Principles -- Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Books -- Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Software -- 20. Summary -- Standa
摘要:Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
