附註:Includes bibliographical references and index.
INTRODUCTION TO ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE EARTH'S CLIMATE -- Definition of Abrupt Climate Change -- Scientific Evidence, Processes, and Consequences for Society and Ecosystems -- The Charge to the Committee -- EVIDENCE OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE -- Interpretation of Past Climatic Conditions from Proxy Records -- The Younger Dryas as an Example of Abrupt Climate Change -- Abrupt Climate Changes Before the Younger Dryas Event -- Eemian Rapid Climate Change -- Holocene Rapid Climate Change-- Rapid Climate Changes in the Instrumental Period -- Patterns of Climate Variability -- Trends Recorded Instrumentally -- Synopsis of Observations -- PROCESSES THAT CAUSE ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE -- An Overview of Mechanisms -- Atmosphere -- Abrupt Climate Change and Thermohaline Circulation -- GLOBAL WARMING AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOR ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE -- Changes in North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation -- Limited Predictability Close to an Instability -- Changes in Natural Modes of the Atmosphere-Ocean System -- Possible Future Abrupt Changes in the Hydrological Cycle -- Ice Sheet Changes -- Outlook -- ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE -- Recent Scientific Studies in the Ecological and Social Sciences -- Sectoral Approaches -- Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change -- FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- Improve the Fundamental Knowledge Base Related to Abrupt Climate Change -- Improve Modeling Focused on Abrupt Climate Change -- Improve Paleoclimatic Data Related to Abrupt Climate Change -- Improve Statistical Approaches -- Investigate "No-Regrets" Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability -- Final Thoughts.
摘要:The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.
