附註:Includes bibliographical references (pages 267-272) and index.
pt. 1. The facts of business cycles. Why study business cycles? -- Describing business cycles -- pt. 2. The macroeconomic theory of business cycles and forecasting. Early business cycle theories -- Keynes and Keynesian theory -- The Monetarist model -- The Rational Expectations model -- Real business cycle models -- New Keynesian models -- Macroeconomic forecasting -- pt. 3. Business cycles in the United States. The Great Depression -- Postwar business cycles in the United States -- A "new economy" in the United States? -- pt. 4. Modern international recessions and depressions. The East Asian crisis -- Argentina and the role of the international monetary fund -- The Great Recession in Japan -- Conclusions : what we do and do not know about business cycles.
摘要:The economy of any nation is an intricate web of relationships among the factors determining supply and demand--and everything that affects them, from inflation to taxes to the stock market. The study of business cycles attempts to explain why economies grow and contract, experiencing periods of prosperity and pain. Consistent with the popular conception of economics as the dismal science, economists secretly long for recessions (periods of negative growth) and depressions (severe contractions), not because they enjoy their devastating impact on human welfare, but because these downturns serve.
