附註:Selected papers from seminars hosted by CESifo, an international network of economists supported jointly by the Center for Economic Studies at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, and the Ifo Institute for Economic Research.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Are different-currency assets imperfect substitutes? / Martin D.D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons -- Volume and volatility in the foreign exchange market : does it matter who you are? / Geir H. Bjønnes, Dagfinn Rime, and Haakon O. Aa. Solheim -- A neoclassical explanation of nominal exchange rate volatility / Michael J. Moore and Maurice J. Roche -- Real exhange rates and nonlinearities / Mark P. Taylor -- Heterogeneity of agents and the exchange rate : a nonlinear approach / Paul De Grauwe and Marianna Grimaldi -- Dynamics of endogenous business cycles and exchange rate volatility / Volker Böhm and Tomoo Kikuchi -- The Euro, Eastern Europe, and black markets : the currency hypothesis / Hans-Werner Sinn and Frank Westermann -- What do we know about recent exchange rate models? In-sample fit and out-of-sample performance evaluated / Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie D. Chinn, and Antonio Garcia Pascual -- The Euro-dollar exchange rate : is it fundamental? / Mariam Camerero, Javier Ordóñez, and Cecilio Tamarit -- Dusting off the perception of risk and returns in FOREX markets / Phornchanok J. Cumperayot.
摘要:Discussions of the different theoretical and empirical paradigms for setting and predicting exchange rates.Recent theoretical developments in exchange rate economics have led to important new insights into the functioning of the foreign exchange market. The simple models of the 1970s, which could not withstand empirical evaluation, have been succeeded by more complex models that draw on theoretical work in such areas as the microstructure of financial markets and open economy macroeconomics. Additionally, new and powerful econometric techniques allow researchers to subject exchange rates to stronger empirical analysis.This book discusses the divergent theoretical and empirical paradigms used today for setting and predicting exchange rates; the chapters reflect current debates in the field. Some chapters base their analyses on the theoretical framework of representative and fully informed rational agents; others are grounded in the hetereogeneity of agents who use different and incomplete sets of information. Still other chapters analyze empirical data to uncover the fundamental characteristics of exchange rates. Taken together, these competing analyses document the current state of exchange rate economics and point the way to a new consensus about how to predict and explain exchange rate movements.
