資料來源: Google Book
Shaping the next one hundred years :new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography
- 作者: Lempert, Robert J.
- 其他作者: Popper, Steven W., , Bankes, Steven C.
- 出版: Santa Monica, CA : RAND 2003.
- 稽核項: 1 online resource (xxi, 187 pages).
- 標題: Information technology. , TRANSPORTATION General. , TRANSPORTATION , POLITICAL SCIENCE Public Policy -- General. , Decision making. , Public PolicyGeneral. , Samfundsvidenskab Politologi. , POLITICAL SCIENCE , Electronic books. , System analysis. , General.
- ISBN: 0833034855 , 9780833034854
- ISBN: 9780833032751 , 0833032755
- 試查全文@TNUA:
- 附註: "MR-1626." Cover; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One; Chapter Two; Chapter Three; Chapter Four; Chapter Five; Chapter Six; Chapter Seven; Appendix A; Appendix B; BIBLIOGRAPHY;
- 摘要: The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decis.
- 電子資源: https://dbs.tnua.edu.tw/login?url=https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&AN=105339
- 系統號: 005322418
- 資料類型: 電子書
- 讀者標籤: 需登入
- 引用網址: 複製連結
A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the "New Economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. The authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to be robust across them. Reframing the question "What will the long-term future bring?" as "How can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests?" these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans' innate capacity for "what-if-ing." Choosing the challenge of sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods may be applied to real-world LTPA and a wide range of other challenges of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.
來源: Google Book
來源: Google Book
評分